According to @52kskew, since the 2026 Yearly Open, BTC has seen capital inflows and a return of positioning, but broad optimism has not yet reappeared, while price remains above the 2025 Yearly Open that they want sustained for higher-time-frame continuation, source: @52kskew on X, Jan 5, 2026. They note that if all three conditions persist—capital inflow, positioning, and holding above the 2025 Yearly Open—market behavior could resemble 2023’s renewed optimism, with 2026 implying an acceleration of the current higher-time-frame trend, source: @52kskew on X, Jan 5, 2026. The macro backdrop is highlighted as critical for this setup to play out, source: @52kskew on X, Jan 5, 2026. Yearly Open levels are described as simple yet reliable trading metrics, with capital inflow or outflow around these opens largely determining Q1 performance and beyond, source: @52kskew on X, Jan 5, 2026. Price frequently revisits Yearly Open levels as tradable pivots in both bull and bear markets, defined by broader market risk appetite, source: @52kskew on X, Jan 5, 2026. For trading, monitoring BTC’s hold above the 2025 Yearly Open, sustained net inflows and positioning, and macro risk indicators can guide Q1 directional bias and pivot trades around Yearly Open levels, source: @52kskew on X, Jan 5, 2026.

According to Charlie Bilello, the US bond market has been in a drawdown for 64 months, the longest in history. According to Charlie Bilello, a drawdown of this length indicates that broad bond total returns have not reclaimed prior highs for over five years, underscoring persistent rate and duration pressure that traders need to factor into positioning. According to Charlie Bilello, this record drawdown serves as a notable macro backdrop that traders can use when calibrating duration exposure, rate hedges, and risk allocation across assets, including crypto.

According to CNBC, U.S. stocks had a rough and historically atypical November versus usual seasonality, providing a macro backdrop for crypto traders monitoring cross-asset risk sentiment. Source: CNBC

According to @52kskew, past BTC sell-offs of similar magnitude were followed by roughly 1–3 months of consolidation, referencing Aug 2023, Nov 2022 FTX crash, Dec 2021 flash crash, and the May 2021 summer sell-off from HTF distribution, source: @52kskew on X, Oct 10, 2025. The author emphasizes that the type of consolidation structure combined with the macro backdrop will be critical for market direction and positioning from here, source: @52kskew on X, Oct 10, 2025. For traders, this playbook implies preparing for range-bound conditions over the next 1–3 months and aligning exposure with evolving macro signals that could resolve the range, source: @52kskew on X, Oct 10, 2025.